“A glance at the FY21 data suggests that some of the major export destinations for India’s top 10 major commodities are also the regions which are expected to witness strong import growth in 2021,” the ratings agency said.
It said that India’s exports, which have been languishing for quite some time, can take advantage of the favourable trade growth outlook of 2021 and consolidate its position further than what has been witnessed in the first quarter of FY22.
In terms of annual growth, India’s exports grew 60.29%, 195.72%, 69.35% and 48.35% in the months of March, April, May and June 2021, respectively.
However, this was largely due to an extremely low base effect whereby annual growth calculations got skewed as India’s exports in the same months of the previous year were extremely low due to the pandemic.
“No doubt, the growth numbers reflect the depth of the COVID-19 shock last year but we believe they also show the strength of the current recovery, adequately captured by the monthly export number,” India Ratings said, adding that the exports momentum began in March 2021, which witnessed the highest ever exports in a single month, clocking $34.45 billion. It added that India’s average monthly exports in FY20 were $26.14 billion, nearly the same as in FY14.
The average monthly exports during the first quarter of FY22 jumped to $31.80 billion.
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