College football Week 1 predictions: Georgia won’t cover vs. Oregon

Last year, The Profit opened by giving out Georgia (+1000) as its national championship pick. In this unusually top-heavy year — of a sport already long defined by unequal opportunity — no long shot has much of a shot. 

Only twice in the past seven years has a team with +1000 odds or longer won the national championship. In the playoff era, no champion has come from outside the top-10 preseason favorites. LSU (2019) was the only winner outside the top five. 

Georgia is better positioned than 128 teams to win it all again, but a team returning fewer than half of last year’s starters isn’t going to become the first back-to-back champion in a decade. The road to repeating will begin with more trouble than sportsbooks are suggesting. The opener against Oregon (+17.5) presents a matchup against a coach (Dan Lanning) who spent the past three years running Georgia’s defense, a quarterback (Bo Nix) who spent three years starting in the SEC, an offensive line returning all five starters and other game-changing talent from a team which should return to the Pac-12 title game.

MICHIGAN (-30.5) over Colorado State

The Wolverines have significant holes to fill after last year’s long-awaited Big Ten title, but Jim Harbaugh’s offense should be even better this season. A loaded offensive line should have little trouble winning almost every battle in the trenches, clearing the way for the best ground game in the Big Ten to put up 300-plus rushing yards. 

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BOSTON COLLEGE (-7) over Rutgers

Greg Schiano’s quarterback competition inspires little belief that last year’s 120th-ranked offense will suddenly achieve respectability. The Eagles have the edge on both sides of the ball, but benefit most with a healthy Phil Jurkovec — a potential first-round draft pick — back under center. 

Cincinnati (+6.5) over ARKANSAS

Hopes are unusually — and deservedly — high in Fayetteville with KJ Jefferson and a solid supporting cast back after putting together Arkansas’ best season in a decade. The Bearcats shouldn’t be overlooked, though, even after losing nine players — including Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner — to the NFL draft. The back-to-back AAC champs still have the conference’s best team and coach (Luke Fickell), and haven’t lost a regular-season game since 2019. 

OKLAHOMA (-31) over Utep

For the first time in seven years, the Sooners were not selected as the favorite in the Big 12 preseason poll. For the second straight year, the prediction will be wrong. Yes, Oklahoma lost Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams to USC — plus, Spencer Rattler to South Carolina — but it still has the league’s most complete team, led by former UCF standout QB Dillon Gabriel. A new era will lead to the school’s best defense in years, headed by longtime Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables. 

Utah (-3) over FLORIDA

If you’d like a playoff pick with upside, the Utes (+500) are among the best plays available. Seventeenth-year coach Kyle Whittingham, last seen during a three-point loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, returns experience, confidence and stability from the reigning Pac-12 champs. The Swamp isn’t enough to give coach Billy Napier the edge in his first game with a roster that went 6-7 last season and lost several quality players. 

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Utah State (+41.5) over ALABAMA

This season’s national champions (sorry, spoiler) open against a non-Power Five opponent for the first time in 11 years, but the Aggies are better than their brand. They won 11 games last season and bring back eight starters — including quarterback Logan Bonner and his entire offensive line, but excluding Alabama transfer/receiver Xavier Williams — from an offense that ranked 22nd nationally. Or, Bama will be bored by the third quarter. 

OHIO STATE (-17) over Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman was dealt a bad hand to start his first season as head coach. An entire offseason isn’t enough time to develop a plan to stop Heisman Trophy favorite C.J. Stroud, who is a safe bet to lead the Buckeyes back atop the Big Ten. The Irish are 1-7 in their last eight games against top-10 teams and have lost their past 10 road games against top-10 teams by an average of 18 points. 

Louisville (-4.5) over SYRACUSE

During back-to-back losing seasons, the Cardinals beat the Orange by a total of 71-3. Dual-threat Malik Cunningham will pad his stats again, as Garrett Shrader gives Syracuse fans the same uneasy feeling of uttering the new name of their home field. The JMA Wireless Dome just rolls off the tongue. 

Boise State (+2.5) over OREGON STATE

The second season under Andy Avalos should go much smoother. An elite defense that surrendered less than 20 points per game brings back eight starters, while senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier should bounce back after battling a knee injury last season. The Beavers are 0-4 in season openers under coach Jonathan Smith. 

LSU (-3) over Florida State

Brian Kelly’s transition to a new sideline won’t be nearly as awkward as his move to the Deep South. The New England native and longtime Notre Dame coach’s faux Southern accent needs work, but Kelly’s inability to win a national title — something only four active coaches can claim — unfairly minimizes his ability to amass the fourth-best win percentage among all active coaches. He inherits enough talent and experience to take down another former juggernaut — which hasn’t posted a winning season since 2017 — in a de facto home game in New Orleans. 

Clemson (-21.5) over GEORGIA TECH

During an inevitable down season — even Alabama missed the playoff in 2019 — in which its offense ranked 98th in the nation, Clemson still finished with 10 wins. Dabo Swinney returns a dominant defense with the potential to be the nation’s best, while quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is more likely to look like the five-star freshman sensation than the reason for last season’s step back. We are only one year removed from him being considered the front-runner to be the No. 1 overall NFL draft pick in 2023. 

Best bets: Purdue, Cincinnati, Boise State
2014-21 record: 1,030-970-19