2023 NL win total odds, predictions: Fade Dodgers, Mets after shaky offseason

If the excitement of Opening Day is hindered by the feeling of lost opportunity in the futures market, fear not: there’s still time to attack some of the remaining values in the MLB win totals market.

To nobody’s surprise, the Dodgers open the 2023 season with the highest preseason win total (96.5) in the National League after posting a 100-win pace or better each of the last four seasons.

They’re priced just ahead of the Braves (95.5), while the Padres (93.5) and Mets (92.5) are the only other teams with a win total north of 90.

Here’s a look at each NL team’s win total entering the 2023 MLB season and three of our favorite bets in this market:

2023 National League preseason win totals (via BetMGM)

2023 NL win total predictions, best bets

Los Angeles Dodgers under 96.5 wins

For years, you could just about set your clock to the Dodgers winning 100 games, which is surely factored into this year’s preseason price. But there are legitimate reasons for concern with this group.

For one, Los Angeles lost over 20 WAR in free agency – the most in the majors – and did very little to recoup from the losses of Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger on offense or Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney on the mound. That doesn’t count the loss of Walker Buehler, who underwent his second Tommy John surgery in August and likely won’t pitch in 2023.

Without him, the Dodgers’ rotation is solid but hardly overpowering, and their lineup has more holes this year than we’ve seen in years. This team has as much upside as any in the NL, but the floor is also lower than this win total suggests.

San Diego Padres over 93.5 wins

If the Dodgers fall short of preseason expectations, those wins have to go somewhere. And I’m betting on their I-5 rivals to make a big leap in the standings this year.

I’m hardly the only one with sky-high expectations for the Padres, who added star shortstop Xander Bogaerts – who’s garnered MVP votes in each of the last five seasons – to a lineup that already features Juan Soto, Manny Machado and nearly a full season of Fernando Tatis Jr.

Once Joe Musgrove (toe) returns from what seems like a minor injury, the Friars’ rotation will be kicking into high gear, too, and potentially stand toe-to-toe with their division rivals. This team won 89 games last season and are well-positioned to exceed that mark in 2023.

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New York Mets under 92.5 wins

An offseason that began with immense hype and expectations landed with a thud after the team’s messy courtship of star shortstop Carlos Correa. And the team’s high hopes for this season have already gotten off to a rocky start.

Two weeks before Opening Day, elite closer Edwin Diaz – who posted the eighth-highest WAR (3.0) for a reliever in almost a decade – went down with a season-ending knee injury while celebrating in the World Baseball Classic. Then, just before Thursday’s opener, the Mets placed Justin Verlander on the IL with a shoulder strain, further testing a rotation that’s already without Jose Quintana (rib).

Verlander (40) and fellow ace Max Scherzer (38) are two of the oldest starters in baseball, and this team will need both at full strength to flirt with one of the NL’s highest win totals. I’ve already seen enough to bet on an underwhelming campaign in 2023.